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How to play Happy Fishing

UK&I continues to be a “standout performance” said the note, as Entain sits comfortably ahead of its peers and appears to be seizing market share, amid fallout from the UK’s remote gaming duty tax hike in April.

In a 14 August note from UBS, the investment bank reiterated its buy rating for Entain. “Overall, we believe Entain shares offer the highest theoretical upside potential within the European gaming sector, albeit with a risk profile that remains elevated relative to peers,” the note went on to say.

Entain’s share price tumble follows a broader trend for gaming stocks in recent years. Added to that is a declining interest in the LSEG, as listed companies continue to exit at pace, including Flutter, which removed its secondary listing from LSEG in August.

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According to CNN Brazil, the government is considering expanding restrictions on betting advertising and banning online casino games. The idea would be to maintain only sports betting.

The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.

The drafting of the text is reportedly in the hands of the Civil House, with some believing that it serves an electoral purpose, meaning Lula potentially riding the wave of criticism against the sector.

How to play Happy Fishing

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.