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Betfred currently sponsors Britain’s five classic horse races, including the Epsom Derby. Done said the company had yet to agree on extending those sponsorships amid the tax uncertainty, warning that reduced regulated gambling provision could push problem gamblers towards the black market.
He also pushed back against claims by Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Select Committee, who has characterised some industry warnings as “scaremongering”.
Burnham dealt another slight blow to the retail sector recently, by insisting he would scrap “aim to permit” for betting shops as well as insisting that AGCs will now need planning permission to function.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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He said the regulation was well established and not with the intention of raising revenue.
“Tax collection is part of the economic game and all sectors contribute,” Durigan said. “The same happens with betting.”
He argued the sector should be treated with the same rigour currently applied to cigarettes.
